The main goal of this project was to quantify the uplift in MTA ridership following congestion pricing program (CPP) in Jan 2025. I downloaded MTA ridership data from 2022-2024, and trained Prophet models on each of the stations during this time period to make baseline predictions for 2025. Prophet is a reasonable baseline model with user friendly interpretable additive components (trend, seasonality, holidays and other shocks). We assume no growth because the NYC population stayed relatively consistent during the training period, then account for weekly and monthly seasonality, and incorporate NYC-specific holidays. Then we compare the actual ridership levels in 2025 against the predicted baseline levels in 2025 to determine the amount of “uplift” attributable to the CPP that went into effect at the beginning of 2025.